UPDATES: War In Ukraine (Day 8)
In the past 24 hours Russian tactics have hardened with further missile strikes against Kyiv and wholesale bombardment of Ukraine’s second city Kharkov continuing. Yesterday Kherson, the strategic southern city which straddles the Dnieper reportedly fell to Russian forces. If confirmed it will be the first major Ukrainian city to fall and it opens up Russian axis of advance north to Kyiv and west towards Odessa. The UK Ministry of Defence has, however, suggested the situation on the ground remains unclear. If Kherson has been taken Russian forces will be seeking to complete their coastal corridor running east to west. Despite this the southeastern city of Mariupol continues to hold despite reports of intense fighting.
Monitoring of flight trackers suggests that numerous flights of Western aid have begun to arrive in Poland with half a dozen flights landing at Rzeszow-Jasionka airport in southeastern Poland. This Rzeszow-Jasionka will become the staging point for aid heading into Ukraine over the coming days. Spain became the latest European nation to promise lethal military aid, with flights expected on Friday. Spanish infantry anti-armour weapons will join a plethora of other weapon systems set to be deployed by Ukrainian forces.
The large Russian convoy approaching Kyiv from the northwest remains nearly stationary with some initial reports of Ukrainian forces targeting it. The next 24 hour may see Russian forces in the Kyiv area move to cut off the city. We will also likely see an increasing tendency for Russia to use its long range fires with massed artillery bombardment of strong points and the adoption of classic, more brutal, Russian urban fighting tactics.
If you missed our coverage of the ongoing conflict from yesterday, you can find it here.
This feed timestamps using local Eastern European Time (EET).
Updates:
7:05AM (EET) – Security analyst Michael Horowitz says that it has been confirmed that civilians were injured when Russian forces fired on them yesterday near Energodar.
9AM (EET) – The UK Ministry of Defence has released an update on its assessment of the situation in Ukraine. It notes that:
“The main body of the large Russian column advancing on Kyiv remains over 30km from the centre of the city having been delayed by staunch Ukrainian resistance, mechanical breakdown and congestion. The column has made little discernible progress in over three days.”
9:40AM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has released an update on the losses they claim to have inflicted on Russian forces as of 9AM 3 March.
- Troops approx. 9,000.
- Tanks 217 units.
- Armoured vehicles (probably includes trucks etc.) 900 units.
- Artillery systems 90.
- Multiple Lunch Rocket system 42.
- Air defense 11.
- Aircraft approx. 30.
- Helicopters 31 units
10:05AM (EET) – A Ukrainian officer, Anatoly Stefan, has shared footage of a Ukrainian Su-24 allegedly targeting the Russian military column outside Kyiv. The footage has not been independently verified.
11:55AM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has shared footage of a Multiple Launch Rocket System reportedly firing on the Russian column near Kyiv. This is yet to be independently verified.
12:05PM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has claimed that Ukrainian forces have shot down a Russian Su-34 near Volnovakha. This claim is yet to be independently verified.
12:15PM (EET) – President Zelensky has signed a decree awarding the Hero of Ukraine medal to 16 Ukrainian servicemen. 9 of the awards are posthumous.
1:40PM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claims that 16,000 foreign nationals have volunteered to join the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
2:10PM (EET) – we reported several days ago that the Antonov AN225, the world’s largest aircraft had been damaged in fighting around Hostomel Airport. From recently posted footage it appears that the aircraft has been completely destroyed. The Antonov company shared the footage.
2:20PM (EET) – Mykhailo Podoliak, advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, is headed to the second round of negotiations with Russia.
2:30PM (EET) – OSINT analysts Oryx have updated their verified data Russian loses – now numbering 500+ assets.
2:40PM (EET) – It appears that the Ukrainian Special Forces have changed tack on their earlier announcement that they would kill Russian Artillerymen on sight and take no surrenders. They have shared a video of the commander of the 30th Rocket Artillery Brigade who has been taken prisoner. The video was posted with the statement: “Realizing the horror of what was happening, Artem made a wise decision and surrendered, falling under the Geneva Convention.”
3:45PM (EET) – The Kremlin, according to Russia’s TASS news agency, has said “the special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine will be fulfilled in any case.”
4:05PM (EET) – The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has renewed its calls for foreign volunteers to join thr Ukrainian International Legion, part of the recently raised Territorial Defence Force.
4:45PM (EET) – Here’s video of Ukrainian civilians making molotov cocktails which has been widely shared on Ukrainian Telegram channels and other social media.
5:20PM (EET) – US Department of Defense Officials reportedly now assesses 90% of Russia’s pre-staged combat power has entered Ukraine.
6:48PM (EET) – Briefs from French sources suggest that French President Emmanuel Macron’s 90-minute call with Vladimir Putin included French attempts to lay out the reality on the ground but Putin stated that the campaign is ‘going as planned’. Macron reportedly felt the tone of the conversation was pessimistic and confrontational.
7:25PM (EET) – A Ukrainian officer, Anatoly Stefan, has shared footage from Nikolaev showing a row of closely parked Russian Tunguska AA vehicles on fire.
7:45PM (EET) – Mykhailo Podoliak, advisor to the Ukrainian Presidential Office, has shared a brief update on today’s second round of talks. He said: “The second round of negotiations is over. Unfortunately, the results Ukraine needs are not yet achieved.” However, there appears to be some hope of humanitarian corridors for the movement of civilians.
7:50PM (EET) – Moldova will reportedly be following Ukraine’s lead and applying for EU membership. Moldova’s President Maia Sandu said: “It took 30 years for Moldova to reach maturity, but today the country is ready to take responsibility for its own future.”
8:05PM (EET) – Turkey enacted the Montreux Convention which allows Turkey to block the Dardanelles and Bosphorus straits to military vessels. Read about this in our latest story from OVD contributor Yusuf Cetiner.
8:50PM (EET) – This video, verified by the NYT, gives a flavor of the bombardment against Chernihiv.
9:35PM (EET) – This evening Russian forces appear to have made a concerted push on Energodar, location of Ukraine’s most southerly nuclear power plant, reports of Russian forces firing on civilians attempting to block the route into the city and bombardment of suburbs.
9:45PM (EET) – Earlier today it was reported that Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, the commanding officer of the Russian 7th Airborne Division, was killed in fighting in Ukraine. A veteran of operations in Chechnya and Syria, Sukhovetsky is the highest ranking officer reported to have been killed in the conflict so far.
Sukhovetsky was also the deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army, the circumstances of his death remain unclear. His death was confirmed by a post on the social media of a local officers’ organisation in the Krasnodar region in southern Russia. There has, however, not yet been any official confirmation from the Russian Ministry of Defense.
10:03PM (EET) – The Ukrainian Defense Intelligence agency shared footage from an ambush of Russian BMDs attacked by Ukrainian special forces operating near Hostomel. The time and location of the footage has not been independently verified.
10:10PM (EET) – Nolan Peterson, of Coffee or Die, shared an interesting video from the ground showing civilians making camouflage netting. Another indication, aside from molotov cocktail production, of civlian efforts to support the Ukrainian war effort.
10:40PM (EET) – Nathan Russer, a researcher with ASPI Cyber Policy, has shared an interesting visualisation of Russian progress and Ukrainian counters around Kyiv.
11:26PM (EET) – Reuters have shared some drone footage of the damage caused by Russian bombardments of Kyiv’s suburbs.
11:55PM (EET) – BREAKING: Overt Defense has completed an investigation into the location and fate of the flagship of the Ukrainian Navy, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny (F130). The vessel appears to have been scuttled at her moorings in Mykolaiv. Read the full article here.
12:30AM (EET) – OSINT analysts Oryx have updated their running analysis of verified Russian equipment losses brining the total number of main battle tanks lost to 71, as well as 57 other armored fighting vehicles, 74 infantry fighting vehicles, 30 armoured personnel carriers and 17 surface to air missile systems.
12:50AM (EET) – At a White House press briefing this afternoon [1:20PM (EST)] Press Secretary Jen Psaki confirmed that the US is sharing intelligence with Ukraine. She told press that:
“We’ve continued and consistently shared a significant amount of detailed, timely intelligence on Russia’s plans and activities with the Ukrainian government to help Ukrainians defend themselves.
We’ve been doing that for months. This includes information that should help them inform and develop their military response to Russia’s invasion. That’s what’s happening — or has been happening.”
1:40AM (EET) – Another element of the Ukrainian civilian defence effort – ‘Czech Hedgehogs’ or tank traps made by Kyiv steelworkers. Photographs by Illia Ponomarenko.
1:45AM (EET) – Stunning images from a live stream from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant at Enerhodar (Europe’s largest NPP) as Russian forces approach the plant and are engaged by Ukrainian forces. Tracer and flares frequently illuminate the approach, Russian vehicles can be seen on the road while cars, with their alarms tripped by explosions, flash.
2:10AM (EET) – Reuters reports that there is a fire at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under attack from Russian forces. The fire appears to be visible on the plant’s CCTV live stream.
2:55AM (EET) – Below is a satellite image of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant which has been annotated to show the likely location of the plant’s livestream camera and the orange ring showing the possible location of the fire. The fire appears to be inside the plant’s office buildings.
3:02AM (EET) – The orange ringed building (said to be a museum) is believed to be the location of the fire. Likely caused by Russian return fire during the earlier fire fight which was seen on the livestream.
3:09AM (EET) – Dmytro Kuleba, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, called for a ceasefire in the area to allow firefighters to reach the fire.
3:32AM (EET) – Below is an annotated satellite image showing the locations of the Russian column attacking the plant, the likely location of the livestream camera and the building on fire. From the livestream it appears the column was attacked further away from the buildings in the vicinity of the camera with tracer fire and explosions seen in the distance before the vehicles became visible and fire was exchanged in the space between the car park on the left and the buildings on the right. Russian casualties are visible and light armoured vehicles appear to remain in position after fighting ebbs. This clipped video shows some of the earlier fighting. The situation on the ground remains unknown.
3:52AM (EET) – The livestream from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant appears to have ended. It is likely, though currently unconfirmed, the plant is now in Russian hands.
4:25AM (EET) – The International Atomic Energy Agency has stated that Ukraine’s nuclear regulator has reported no change in radiation levels at Zaporizhzhia.
4:46AM (EET) – Read our full story about the battle for Zaporizhzhia, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant
We will continue to update as events evolve